Market updates for 1/10/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

Nifty has once again bounced back and tested the previous high at 5720. However closing was below 5720 which means that Nifty is still trading within a range. So wait for the sustainable breakout before taking positions.

Nifty weekly chart

 

 

 

In weekly chart Nifty has sustained above 5630 for two consecutive weeks and hence the possibility of reaching 5830 is high. Nifty may consolidate within 5720-5630 for some more time. But this range is expected to break shortly as October is the month of quarterly result announcement and the breakout is going to happen on upside.

 

 

Nifty monthly chart

 

 

 Above is the monthly chart of Nifty. This chart is not useful from the point of view of short term trading. But it can be used to understand the long term (1-2 year) direction of market. In this chart technical indicator called MACD is used. MACD had indicated 'sell' in February 2011 and the downtrend lasted for more than one and half years. Now it has indicated 'buy' . That means the possibility of reaching at least 6200 in coming months is very high. This choppiness is going to continue but the trend will remain up.

 

So retail traders can start buying blue chip companies and quality mid cap companies at least now. Some day Nifty will reach 6200 (I don't know when) and at those levels if we cry that we didn't participate in rally then it is of no use.

 

Some people say that this rally is happening because of liquidity but not because of fundamentals. Yes GDP , IIP and others has reduced,inflation has increased but do you really think that the foreign institutions/ domestic institutions will invest in an economy by looking at GDP , IIP of one year ? under performance of single sector ? earnings of single quarter ? or chart pattern of Nifty based on 15 min time frame ??

 

Chart of the day

 

Infosys Ltd

 

 

 

Infosys has closed below 200 DMA for 2nd consecutive trading session. MACD has indicated sell and it is likely to test the lower part of the channel.

 

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5720
Reversal if closes below	5485

 

Open Positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Infy Oct Fut	Short	2542	2425	17
Infy Oct 2550 CE	Long	104	90	-14
Rel Ind Fut	Long	850	841.5	-9.5
Rel Ind 840PE	Long	21	26	5

 

 

Positions squared off

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Rel Cap	432	442	10

 

 

Thought for the day

 

Obstacles are the frightful things you see when you take your eyes off the goal - Henry Ford

 

 

 

Market updates for 28/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

Nifty has continued consolidating between  a narrow range. Since Nifty is in overbought territory it is likely to fall down to 5630-5600 levels before resuming another cycle of uptrend.

 

Chart of the day

 

CNX IT

 

 

 

CNX IT has broken down the channel. MACD is indicating downtrend. In today's trading session except HCL Tech most of the other stocks were under pressure. Avoid long position in IT stocks.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5720
Reversal if closes below	5485

 

Open Positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Rel Cap	Long	432	432.3	0.25

 

 

Positions squared off

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Tata Motors Oct Fut	261.5	266.9	5.4
Tata Motors Oct 270 CE	9.7	7.4	-2.3

 

Thought for the day

 

The lure of the distant is deceptive. The great opportunity is where you are.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market updates for 27/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

Another day of consolidation has come to end. Today Nifty traded between 5671-5638 and the price movement was quite volatile. 5630-5600 is the region which can act as strong support and any breakout from this range can take Nifty to 5500. Since tomorrow is the day of FnO expiry market can be highly volatile that too in last one hour of trade. Expiry may happen within 5600-5700.

 

It is very important for Nifty to close above 5630 to reach 5800 in coming days. However a weekly close below 5630 could be the early indication of reversal of short term trend.

 

Chart of the day

 

Tata Motors

 

 

 

So far Tata Motors was consolidating between a narrow range of 268-280 and today this range is broken. MACD is indicating slow down in upside momentum and another day of flat to negative close will lead to a sell indication by MACD. This is the beginning of downtrend and we can notice decent amount of fall in coming days.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5720
Reversal if closes below	5485

 

Open Positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Tata Motors Oct Fut	Short	266.9	264	2.9
Tata Motors Oct 270 CE	Long	9.7	8.6	-1.1

 

 

Positions squared off

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Nifty Sept Fut	5705	5655	-50
Nifty 5700 Sept PE	45	50	5

 

 

Thought for the day

 

Talking about our problems is a greatest addiction. Break the habit. Talk about joys.

 

 

 

Market update for 26/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

 After a large rally of 250 points now Nifty is consolidating in a narrow range. It is facing resistance at 5700 levels.  New long positions can be considered only if Nifty sustains above 5720. September series is expiring in another 2 days and it may happen around 5700. Since RSI is in overbought region upside looks limited.

 

Chart of the day

 

Bank Nifty

 

 

 

Bank Nifty is facing resistance at 11450 level and RSI is overbought. If it fails to close above 11450 in 2-3 trading sessions then short can be considered.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5720
Reversal if closes below	5485

 

 

Open positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Nifty SeptFut	Long	5705	5685	-20
Nifty 5700 Sept PE	Long	45	33	-12

 

 

Intraday Trades

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
LIC Hsg Oct Fut	285.5	279	-6.5
LIC Hsg Oct 280 CE	12.5	15.5	3

 

 

Thought for the day

 

Happiness is a butterfly  which when pursued is always just beyond your grasp . But  if you sit down quitely it may alight upon you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market updates for 25/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

In today's trading session Nifty has closed at 5669 down by 21 points. After a major rally of 130+ points Nifty has started consolidating. Long position in Nifty can be held as long as it is above 5630. RSI of Nifty and other Index stocks has entered overbought region and also many index shares have reached major resistance levels. There is a  possibility of Nifty reaching 5800 but traders who have entered long at lower levels should consider booking partial profit and sit with cash.

 

Today few traders were asking me about shorting opportunity in BHEL and United Spirits. As I have observed there are many retail traders who short the top gainers and buy top losers. In fact this is one of the popular method of trading. A company rallying 5 % up is an indication of strength and on the other hand if a company has corrected by 5% in a day it is a sign of weakness. Strength should be bought and weakness should be sold. Trading against the direction is injurious to health and wealth think about it.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5720
Reversal if closes below	5485

 

Open positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Nifty Sept Fut	Long	5705	5682	-23
Nifty 5700 Sept PE	Long	45	45.5	0.5

 

 

Positions squared off

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
SBI Sept Fut	2220	2239	19
SBI Sept 2200 Put	31	21	-10

 

 

Thought for the day

A man is not hurt so much by what happens , as by his opinion of what happens.

 

 

 

 

 

Market updates for 24/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

Nifty has made a huge breakout from the resistance at 5630. On Friday it gained whopping 136 points and closed at 5690. Nifty has been forming higher high and higher low pattern and any fall towards towards 5630 should be considered as buying opportunity. Expected short term target is 5800. As long as Nifty is above 5630 don't dare to short Index/stock but buy on dips.

 

Nifty weekly charts

 

 

The breakout from the descending trend line has proved to be extreme bullish sign and Nifty has gained significant 120 points compared to last week's close. Nifty has closed above 5630 on weekly basis which is 100 % retracement. Now it expected to move towards  5840-5965 which are 123.6 % and 138.2% retracement respectively.  Since market is in a perfect trend the resistance levels should be used to book partial profit but should not be used to take short positions.

Chart of the day

 

 

 

SBI was in a down trend from many months. In last week it has indicated a major breakout by closing above trend line resistance at 2125. MACD is indicating 'buy' and continuation of uptrend is expected.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5720
Reversal if closes below	5485

 

Open positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Nifty SeptFut	Long	5705	5710	5
SBI Sept Fut	Long	2220	2217	-3
SBI Sept 2200 Put	Long	31	31.5	0.5

 

 

Positions squared off

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
DLF Fut	231.7	236	4.3
DLF 230 PE	6.7	3.9	-2.8

 

 

Thought for the day

 

To be tested is good. The challenged life may be the best therapist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market updates for 21/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

On Thhursday's trading session Nifty lost moderate 45 points and closed at 5554.As long as the trend line support is not breached we can expect bounce back. The range of the Nifty will be 5530-5630. Since today is the last trading session weekly close below 5630 indicates that this level is acting as strong intermediary resistance.

 

Nifty Medium term trend 

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5648
Reversal if closes below	5320

 

 

Open Positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
DLF Fut	Long	231.8	231	-0.8
DLF 230 PE	Long	6.7	6.5	-0.2