Market update for 15/06/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

                                                       (Click on the chart to enlarge)

Market lost significantly today because of higher inflation.  May WPI inflation has come in at 7.55% versus 7.23% (MoM). Reality,Capital goods , Banking and Auto mobiles were worst performers in todays session. Nifty has closed at 5054 down by 66 points.

In hourly chart Nifty had formed a formation called 'raising wedge'. This formation can be either continuation or reversal formation. This time it has become a reversal formation.  Today nifty sustained below the wedge indicating the weakness in the short term trend. Now Nifty is expected to test 5020 .

 

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty has again closed below 200 DMA at 5063. Technically , if index or stock closes above or below 200 DMA we can expect a significant rally. But now Nifty is frequently changing its course . We may get clear direction by Tuesday.

5140 is acting as resistance and 5000 is the support. Nifty is facing too much of resistance at higher levels. It can reach 5200 and above only if there is a major news flow in the form of RBI rate cut or any other news from abroad. Positional shorts can be considered if Nifty closes below 5000.

Chart of the day

 

Tata Motors

Tata Motors has been a major loser in past 2 trading sessions. The market price of Tata Motors has decreased by nearly 7%. In one of the earlier trading session it had tested 200 DMA at Rs.220 and bounced back to Rs.243. Now it is likely to test 200 DMA at Rs.224 again. Rs.224 is the last hope for Tata Motors. If it closes below 224 then we may see the levels of Rs.215-200 in short term.Reversal above Rs.230.

Nifty Medium Term View

Nifty Medium Term Trend	Up
Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
Reversal if closes above	4880

This view is based on different time frames and parameters. Traders should not get confused with other updates.

Open Position

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Bank Nifty Fut	Short	25	9830	9820	250
Bank Nifty 9900 CE	Long	25	215	208	-150

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Tata Motors	500	237	235	-1000
Bata	135	822	830	1080
Nifty 5000 PE	100	63	75	1200
Nifty 5000 PE	50	53	56	150

HNI Column

We had recommended Hindalco at Rs.120.50. So far Hindalco has underperformed the index and it is also likely to continue the same. So we recommend exit call on Hindalco.

Thought for the day

Fear is a habit ; so is self pity , defeat , despair , hopelessness and resignation. We can eliminate all of these negative habits with two simple resolves : I CAN and I WILL.

Market Updates for 13/06/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

Today's trade was a volatile session and Nifty recovered nearly 100 points from the day low of  5015.

Banking,Auto,Cement and Real Estate were major gainers. Interest rate sensitive sectors like bank,Auto and Real Estate is expected to do well at least till 18th June.

Nifty is making higher top higher bottom formation in hourly chart which is a bullish sign. Every low is ending up in buying which is keeping the trend positive. In today's trade Nifty was unable to reach previous peak at 5124 which can act as intermediate resistance. Once Nifty sustains above 5124 we can expect  a target of 5200.

 

Nifty Daily Chart

In today's trade Nifty has managed to break the resistance of a trend line. Nifty has once again closed above 200 DMA at 5063 which is a bullish sign. Now Nifty is expected to move towards 5200 which is 50% retracement from 5634 to 4788. The reversal might happen if Nifty closes below 5000.

Chart of the day

 

LIC Housing Finance

LIC Hsg finance is one of the top gainers in today's trading session. It is up by 4% and closed price is Rs.254.35. LIC has come out of the trading range that is Rs.229-246. It has also closed above a trend line and above 50 DMA which is at Rs.251.

Short term traders can buy LIC for a target of Rs.259-267 and above . Stop loss if closes below Rs.240.

Open Position

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Bata	Long	135	822	819.25	-371.25
Tata Motors	Long	500	237	242.95	2975

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Nifty July Fut	50	5137	5056	-4050
Nifty June 5100 PE	50	87	130	2150
Hindalco	300	120.5	120	-150

Nifty Medium Term View( 1 month)

Nifty Medium Term Trend	Up
Date	12/06/2012
Targets	5180-5280
Reversal if closes above	4880

This view is based on higher time frame and different parameters. Traders should not get confused with other updates.

HNI Column

Recommended Price	120.5
Recommended Date	06/06/2012
Quantity	2000
Investment	241000
Recommended Price	4.5
Quantity  (Lot size 2000)	1 lot
Investment	9000
Total Investment	250000
Upper Breakeven	124.95
Max Loss(Rs per share)	4.95
Maximum Profit	Unlimited
CMP of Hindalco	123.1
CMP of Put Option	2.7
Unrealised P/L	1600

Advice to traders from market master 'Larry William'

Don't expect too much. Consistent success is an illusion. Success is here, but don't think that it's going to happen each and every other day or week or year. It's like a frog in the well, it jumps up four and may be flies down to and jumps up four and flies down three. Spend your money on education before you start trading because you are going to lose several thousands of dollars without knowing what you are doing. You better get educated first. Otherwise you'll lose the money and then figure out you get educated, so you’ve got a double hit.

Market Updates for 12/06/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

We have started the first day of this week with negative closing. Today Nifty sustained above 5100 for greater part of the trading session. But as soon as the news about S&P warning to downgrade Indian economy Nifty started falling. Pharma and capital goods were major losers in today's session.

Nifty has taken support at 5054. If Nifty trades below today's low of 5040 for more than an hour we may see Nifty falling to 4986-4945 and below. Tomorrow IIP data will be announced, which can decide future direction of the market.

Nifty Daily Chart

 

In previous trading session Nifty closed above 200 DMA 5063. But today it closed at 5054 below 200 DMA. Considering the trend line support in hourly chart we have carried long position in Nifty.In tomorrow's trading session if Nifty closes below today's close then it is not advisable to carry  long position.

 

Nifty Weekly Chart

In this week  IIP,Inflation and advance tax numbers will be announced. Next week that is on 18th RBI monetary policy will be announced. So market expected to be highly volatile.

If Nifty closes above 5100 on weekly basis then we can expect medium term upside in the market. Target will be 5300 and above.

Open Position

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Hindalco	Long	300	120.5	120.4	-30
Nifty July Fut	Long	50	5137	5060	-3850
Nifty June 5100 PE	Long	50	87	128.3	2075

Today's Trades

Scrip	Type	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Jubilant Food	Long	65	1206.5	1237	1982
Nifty July Fut	Long	50	5137
Nifty June 5100 PE	Long	50	87

Nifty Medium Term View

Nifty Medium Term Trend	Down
Targets	4780-4680
Reversal if closes above	5090

HNI Column

Recommended Price	120.5
Recommended Date	06/06/2012
Quantity	2000
Investment	241000
Recommended Price	4.5
Quantity  (Lot size 2000)	1 lot
Investment	9000
Total Investment	250000
Upper Break even	124.95
Max Loss(Rs per share)	4.95
Maximum Profit	Unlimited
CMP of Hindalco	120.5
CMP of Put Option	4.2
Unrealised P/L	-600

Thought for the day 

Trade with the trend. If you make a mistake WITH the trend, usually time will bail you  out. If you make a mistake AGAINST the trend, sometimes time will bury you deeper and deeper until you are in so deep you can never dig yourself out - Chick Goslin

Trading Discipline

One aspect of universal agreement among the successful trades is importance of discipline. This is probably the most worn out term in futures trading. Saying the word is one thing, truly understand its definition on an operational or behavioral level is another.

Discipline is not just the ability to develop a trading plan and to stay with it; it is also the ability to know when your plan is not working and therefore when to abandon it.

Discipline is the ability to give your futures trading positions sufficient time to work in your favour or, for that matter, sufficient time to work against you.

Discipline is the ability to trade again once you have taken a loss, to ignore extraneous information and to avoid inputs that are not related to the system you are using.

Discipline is the ability to maintain reasonable position size and to avoid over trade.

Discipline is the persistence required to follow your trading system.

Discipline, above all, is the ability to come back to trading arena every day with empty mind, regardless of whether you won ,lost or broke even the day before.

As you can see, discipline consists of many different things. Discipline is not any one particular skill. It is not  limited to placing stop loss.

Source : ‘Market Masters’ written by Jack Berstain

Market Updates for 11/06/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

It was a volatile session. Nifty tested important support level at 5000 and bounced back. Nifty closed at 5068 up by 18 points. Capital goods and banking sector led the rally.

Nifty is forming a higher high,higher low in hourly chart and it is managing to break every esistance. Even though Nifty came down to 5000 it was supported by trend line (as shown in the chart). As per hourly chart trend reversal can happen only below 5018 and this level will be changing as the market goes up. This market is a buy on dip market so avoid taking short position.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty has closed above 200 DMA which is at 5063. When the Index closes above 200 DMA it indicates a major reversal of the trend. Now market is expected to be bullish from short trem to medium term. There is a hurdle at 5100 which is the next target and once Nifty breaks this level we can expect the levels of 5200 and above. 

Chart of the day

Yes Bank

Yes Bank is trading in a triangle pattern. The peaks are Rs.389-379 and bottoms are Rs.293-309. It has pierced the resistance at Rs.341 and now it is trading above 100 DMA which is a bullish sign. CMP of YES Bank is Rs. 345 short term target is Rs.360 and stop loss is closing below Rs.329. If it breaks the upper trend line then we can expect the target of Rs.370-380.

Open Position

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Hindalco	Long	300	120.5	120.4	-30
Jub Food	Long	65	1206	1208.95	191.75

 

Todays Trade

Bank Nifty Fut	25	9737	9712	-625
Bank Nifty 9400 PE	25	253	261	200
Infy Fut	125	2417	2435	2250
Infy 2400 put	125	56	45	-1375

 

Nifty Medium Term View

Nifty Medium Term Trend	Down
Targets	4780-4680
Reversal if closes above	5090

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This view is based on higher time frame and different parameters. Traders should not get confused with other updates.

HNI Column

Recommended Price	120.5
Recommended Date	06/06/2012
Quantity	2000
Investment	241000
Recommended Price	4.5
Quantity  (Lot size 2000)	1 lot
Investment	9000
Total Investment	250000
Upper Break even	124.95
Max Loss(Rs per share)	4.95
Maximum Profit	Unlimited
CMP of Hindalco	120.4
CMP of Put Option	4
Unrealised P/L	-800

Thought for the day

I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humans -- and human nature never changes - Jesse Livermore

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