Market update for 09/07/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

In this week market was extremely flat. Nifty is stuck in a range of 56 points that is between 5262-5318. Sectors like Telecom , Metals and Banks did well in this week.  Companies like Idea , Dish TV , United Spirits were the top gainers. Hexaware , Asian Paints and Wockhardt Ltd were the major Losers .

The trend of the Nifty is still up.If Nifty sustains below 5260 then we can see the levels of 5200. On the upside above 5320 target will be 5350-5400. One major event in this week is Infosys Q1 result which is on 12 th July.

Nifty Weekly Chart

On weekly chart Nifty has closed above 5300 which is 61.8 % retracement from the fall from 5626. Next target will be around 5400. Around 5400 there are multiple resistance like 100 WMA, 78.6% retracement levels and descending trend line drawn from 6330-5626. We can carry long position till 5400. My personal view is that 5400 could be the peak of this rally. Reversal of the trend will be closing below 5200.

Top pick of the week

 

Reliance Capital

Reliance Capital was one of the top gainers in last one month. Its upward trend started from Rs.298 and recently it made a high of Rs. 386. In the above chart you can see that is has reached a major resistance level which is at Rs. 375. Even though Rel Cap made a high of Rs.386 it couldn't sustain above this resistance level and weekly close is at Rs.374.50. Stochastics on weekly chart is overbought so the possibility of Rel Cap correcting is high. Traders can short Rel Cap around Rs370-375 for a target of Rs.350 and below. Stop loss will be  weekly closing above Rs.386. 

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Sesa Goa	Long	100	206	198	-800
Nifty 5200 PE	Long	50	51	34.3	-835
Bank Nifty fut	Long	25	10600	10650	1250
Bank Nifty 10600 PE	Long	25	229	186	-1075
M&M	Long	50	725	732	350

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Bharti	200	321.6	322	80

 

Nifty medium term trend

Trend	Up
Initiation Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
High since change	5327
Reversal if closes below	5120

Thought for the day

Employ your time in improving yourself by others men writing , so that you will gain easily for what others have laboured hard for - Socrates.

Market update for 06/07/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty was trading in a narrow range of 56 points that is between 5362-5318. In today's trading session it has closed at 5327 up by 25 points. The range of 56 points is broken on the upside. Now the target is 5350-5400 and reversal will be below 5060.

Nifty daily chart

Nifty has formed ' raising wedge pattern ' in daily chart of Nifty. Nifty can remain in this formation for some more time. The higher side breakout can happen if Nifty closes above 5360 and lower side breakout can happen if Nifty closes below 5237. These levels can change in coming days and that will happen as per market movement.

Chart of the day

 

Sesa Goa

Sesa Goa was trading in a range of Rs.175-200 form past 3 months. This range of Rs.25 was broken yesterday that is on 04/07/2012. Sesa Goa has tested Rs.175 for 5 times and Rs.200 twice. According to me the significance of this breakout is very high. Sesa Goa has closed above Rs.200 with large volume and it is trading above 100 and 200 DMA. The expected target is Rs. 225 - 232 -240 reversal closing below Rs.180.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Bharti	Long	200	321.6	324	480
Sesa Goa	Long	100	206	202	-400
Nifty 5200 PE	Long	50	51	37	-700
Bank Nifty fut	Long	25	10600	10630	750
Bank Nifty 10600 PE	Long	25	229	206	-575
M&M	Long	50	725	722	-150

 

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
SBIN	40	2185	2215	1200
Sesa Goa	100	206
Bank Nifty fut	25	10600
Bank Nifty 10600 PE	25	229
M&M	50	725

Nifty Medium term trend

Trend	Up
Initiation Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
High since change	5327
Reversal if closes below	5120

Thought for the day

'He who conquers his anger has conquered his worst enemy'

Market updates for 05/07/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

It was a range bound trading session. Nifty is trading in a very narrow range of 56 points that is between 5262-5318. Today Nifty closed at 5302 up by 14 points and  Nifty has closed above 5300 after nearly 2 months.

If Nifty manages to close above 5300 one more time  then the possibility of reaching 5400 will increase further.Reversal of the trend can happen if Nifty sustains below 5260.

Nifty daily chart

In daily chart of Nifty you can see a number of ' doji ' candles which is sign of indecision in the market.  July is the month of quarterly results. So according to me this month should be full of activities. Market has to come out the trading range in short period of time and the breakouts will be very swift. Don't miss the opportunities.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Bharti	Long	200	321.6	327	1080
SBIN	Long	40	2185	2225	1600
Nifty 5200 PE	Long	50	51	42	-450

Today's Trade 

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Dr Reddy	60	1667	1642	-1500
Yes Bank	65	340.5	350	617.5
Tata Mot	100	245.5	239	-650
Bharti	200	321.6

 * All of them are positional trades.

Nifty Medium Term Trend 

Trend	Up
Initiation Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
High since change	5302
Reversal if closes below	5020

Thought for the day

Failure is the opportunity to begin again , more intelligently - Henry Ford

Market update for 04/07/2012

Nifty hourly chart

There is no significant changes in the hourly chart. Nifty is consolidating again. New long position should be considered only if Nifty sustains above 5318 and stop loss will be below 5262. The expected target 5400 is achievable. Reversal of the trend is below 5200.

Nifty daily chart

Nifty has again closed with insignificant gains. Currently Nifty is facing resistance at 5300 levels which is 61.8% retracement. Overall trend remains bullish. However , traders should trade with strict stop loss , periodical profit booking is a must. If you have many positions it is advisable to buy very few at the money put option to hedge the positions. Whenever market  is at higher levels we all expect it to rally further and vice versa. But we have to take precaution.

Till now capital goods , Banks and Auto mobile sectors were leading the rally. But now metals and telecom are in centre of the stage. So watch out Hindalco , JSW steel and Bharti.

Chart of the day

INR has started appreciating against  USD and there are multiple indications that this will continue further. Now the target for INR is 53.90-52.90-52 and reversal is above 55.25.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Yes Bank	Long	65	340.5	350.6	656.5
Tata Mot	Long	100	245.5	238	237.5
SBIN	Long	40	2185	2187.5	100
Dr Reddy	Long	60	1667	1668.5	90
Nifty 5200 PE	Long	50	51	50.5	-25

Trailing SL for Yes Bank is at Rs.343.00

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Dr Reddy	60	1667
Nifty 5200 PE	50	51

Nifty Medium Trend

Trend	Up
Initiation Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
High since change	5287
Reversal if closes below	5020

Thought for the day

"He who is not contented with what he has will not be contented with what he would like to have " - Socrates

Market update for 03/07/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

The market was range bound and closed flat at 5278 down by 0.30 points!!. Banks, capital goods and realty were gainers . FMCG were biggest losers of the day.

After a major rally on Friday’s trading session market is consolidating getting ready for next move. Overall trend remains up. Today Nifty has touched 5300 levels and 5400 is the next level to watch for. This is a buy on dip market and if Nifty comes down to 5200 levels it should be considers as an opportunity to take long positions in Nifty and high beta stocks.

Option buyers have a lesson to learn here. Nifty 5200 CE is down by 6% and 5300 CE is down by 8%. The value of the option premium tend to diminish if Index or stock doesn’t move for a given period of time. Traders should understand that this is not a debate about which is better ( buying option or writing option , buying option or future) but this is only an observation.

Nifty Daily Chart

Until Nifty is above 100 DMA that is 5184 no worry for bulls at all. If Nifty closes below 5184 then it can test 200 DMA at 5080.

Today’s candle stick pattern is called as ‘Doji’. It is formed on the chart when open and close are almost equal. Doji convey a sense of indecision between buyers and sellers. However market will overcome  this indecision session sooner or later and there is every possibility that Nifty will continue towards 5400.

Chart of the day

 

 

M& M was consolidating between the range 680-710 and today it has come out of the range. But it is unable to cross 200 DMA at Rs.715. If M&M closes above Rs.715 then the target will be Rs. 735-748 and above. Stop loss below Rs.700.

 Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Yes Bank	Long	65	340.5	344.4	253.5
Tata Mot	Long	100	245.5	238	-750
SBIN	Long	40	2185	2181	-160

 

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Hero Motoco	65	2127	2130	195
SBIN	40	2185
Jubl Food	66	1184	1216	2112

 

Nifty Medium Term Trend

Trend	Up
Initiation Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
High since change	5280
Reversal if closes below	5020

Thought for the day

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett