Market update for 02/08/2012

Nifty hourly chart

Nifty has continued uptrend by closing at 5240 up by 11 points. Since Nifty has recovered from 5050 levels with in 2-3 trading sessions the momentum has reduced .

In the hourly chart you can see that Nifty has formed raising wedge formation and the trading range is reducing. Nifty can breakout of the range in 1 or 2 trading sessions and the possibility of upward breakout is more than lower breakout. Short term targets are 5258-5300 and reversal can happen if Nifty sustains below 5220.

Nifty daily chart

My view about  Nifty daily chart will remain  same. 5300 could be the peak and Nifty may start falling from 5300. Traders can short Nifty at 5300 levels. If Nifty closes above 5300 book loss and exit the position.

Chart of the day

Zinc

Daily chart of Zinc is a very interesting one. It explains the importance of trend lines from point of view of executing low risk entries.

Zinc is facing strong resistance at Rs..104 levels. It has major support at Rs.101.80. If this support is breached then we can expect a target of Rs.99. So wait for close below Rs.101.8 and take short stop loss should closing above Rs.102. 

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
SBI	Long	2015	2033	18
Rel Infra	Long	507	509	2

 

Today's Trade

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Tata Steel	406	408	2
Nifty 5300 CE	53	63	10
Rel Infra	507
*Tata Steel Trailing SL triggered

Nifty Medium Term Trend

Trend	Down
Initiation Date	26/07/2012
Initiated at	5043
Low since change	5043
Reversal if closes above	5283

 

Thought for the day 

Be strong NOW because things will get better.It may be stormy now , but it can't rain forever.

Market update for 01/08/2012

Nifty hourly chart

Today's trading session was very volatile as RBI has announced monetary policy. Repo , Reverse Repo and CRR are unchanged but SLR ( Statutory Liquidity Ratio) was reduced http://lastbull.com/what-is-statutory-liquidity-ratio-slr/. Interest rate sensitive sectors like Banks , Auto and Real Estate were highly volatile and many companies in this sector have closed in  green. Nifty closed with moderate gain at 5229 up by 29 points. Short term  trend remains up and the expected targets are 5250-5300.

 

Nifty daily chart

Nifty has maintained it uptrend after breaking out of the range. Oscillator like stochastics is showing that  uptrend will continue for some more time. Nifty has the potential to test the trend line at 5300. Start booking profit from 5250 and Nifty may face selling pressure at 5300.

Chart of the day

Nifty Monthly Chart

Today was the last trading day of this month so I thought of adding Nifty monthly chart. Nifty is trading within a triangle and this is clearly visible in monthly chart.  The trading range of Nifty in the month of July was between 5079-5350. If  we connect 5628-5350 we arrive at a trend line which is nothing but upper part of the triangle. My anticipation for the month of August is that Nifty may reach 5300 and in best case scenario it may move up to 5400 .After reaching these levels it may drift down towards 5000 once again.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Tata Steel	Long	100	406	414.5	850
Nifty 5300 CE	Long	50	53	59	300
SBI	Long	25	2015	2005	-250

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
SBI	25	2015

Nifty Medium Term Trend

Trend	Down
Initiation Date	26/07/2012
Initiated at	5043
Low since change	5043
Reversal if closes above	5283

Thought for the day

They always say time changes things , but you actually have to change them yourself. 

Market updates for 31/07/2012

Nifty hourly chart

In previous trading sessions Nifty has closed below 5100 which is 200 DMA. Today's trading session was dominated by bulls and Nifty shut shop at 5199 up by 99 points.

In the above mentioned chart you can see that Nifty has broken out of descending trend line which is constructed by joining 5350-5258. Hourly chart is indicating short term uptrend and the expected targets are 5250-5300.

Nifty daily chart

.In daily chart Nifty was trading within a sloping channel. Today Nifty has closed above this channel which is bullish sign moreover it has  also closed above important moving averages like 200 DMA and 100 DMA. Nifty is expected to test 5250-5300 in short term.

Chart of the day

Tata Steel

In the recent down trend metal sector , being a high beta sector , was badly beaten. But now there are signs of turn around in the trend. Today Tata steel being a leader in the sector has gained  nearly 2.5%. Tata Steel has major support at Rs.388 and form past two trading sessions it showing signs of strength by bouncing back from this level. The expected targets are 418-427.

Open positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Tata Steel	Long	100	406	410.5	450
Nifty 5300 CE	Long	50	53	53	0

 

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Nifty Aug fut	50	5126	5205	-3950
Nifty 5200 CE	50	72	95	1150
Tata Steel	100	406
Nifty 5300 CE	50	53

Nifty medium term trend

Trend	Down
Initiation Date	26/07/2012
Initiated at	5043
Low since change	5043
Reversal if closes above	5283

Thought for the day

Most people do not want freedom because freedom involves responsibility and most people are frightened of responsibility - Sigmund Freud 

Market update for 30/07/2012

Nifty hourly chart

Friday's trading session was highly volatile. Nifty made a gap up open and traded above 5100. But it faced resistance at 5145 level and eventually came down to 5099 levels. Nifty has closed marginally above 200 DMA which is at 5098.

Sustainable short term uptrend may start above  5160. If 5160 is breached on closing basis then the target will be 5200-5250 and reversal  will be closing below 5100.

 

Nifty weekly chart

Nifty has formed a triangle pattern in both weekly chart and daily chart. As you can see in the above pic the trading range is decreasing and we may not witness a major breakout in the short term. Nifty has taken support at 50 WMA. If Nifty closes below 5085 on weekly basis then it can reach 5000 and 4900. Stochastics on weekly chart is overbought , it is indicating that upside is limited to the extent of 5200-5250. Breakout from 5250 will take Nifty to 5350-5400 levels in medium term.

Chart of the day

Dow Jones

Dow Jones was trading between 12975-12460. On Friday's trading session it has given a clear cut breakout and closed above 13000. The logical targets are 13150-13300.

Nifty medium term trend

Trend	Down
Initiation Date	26/07/2012
Initiated at	5043
Low since change	5043
Reversal if closes above	5283

 

Thought for the day

Take only what you can byte and byte what you can swallow and swallow what you can digest.

Be Persistence

One of the most important quality a trader can posses is persistence. Trading requires the ability to continue trading even when results have not been good!!. Due to the nature of markets and trading systems , good times frequently follow bad times , and bad times frequently follow good times. Some of a trader’s greatest success occur following a string of losses. This is why traders must be persistence in applying their trading methods and continue using them for a reasonable period of time.

Individuals who quit too soon will not be in the markets when their systems begins to work ; those who quit too late will run out trading capital. Therefore , although persistence is important , it is  also important to quit and not play any longer using the existing system.

How do you develop persistence? While the answer appears simple , the implementation is not. The only way to be persistence is to force yourself initially to do everything that must be done according to the dictates of your system or method.

If you are having difficulty , try this. Make a commitment to a trading system or method. Follow through with that approach for a specific amount of time ; take every trade according to the system with as much consistence as possible. If  you are consistent in applying your rules , most cases you will have profits to show for your efforts. Even if your trading is not successful , you will have learned a great deal. You have learned that in a disciplined fashion and , moreover , that the only way to do is to be persistence by following as many trades and rules as possible.

Now compare the above scenarios to the ignorance and confusion that come from haphazardly trading or inconsistently applying trading rules. Think back to your experiences as  a trader. Remember your worst losing trades. You will find that losses that were taken according to a system or method are easier to accept psychologically , whereas those that were not accepted according to the rules often turn into terrible monsters , ultimately costing you much , much more than they should have financially as well as psychologically. To master the skill of persistence , you need to practice it. Make the commitment , and you will see some wonderful results , even over the short term.

Source : Intelligent futures trading By Chick Goslin