Friday, 7 December 2012



Have a business plan
What is the first thing that you do when you want something with an intense desire? When you want it so bad you can taste it? When you can feel the desire in your bones? When you’re driven by a desire that leaves you hungry for it? With this kind of emotionally passionate focus, you automatically begin to think about “how” you can get it. In other words you begin to plan. The “how” or “plan” charts the way to achieving the desired item…no matter what it is and no matter how small or large. Planning is essential to the process of achievement and without it you would come as close to accomplishing the goal as you would if you were to be blindfolded and spun around and given a bow and arrow to hit a bulls eye 100 yards away. Trading requires planning at both the macro level (the big picture or business plan) and the micro level (the small picture or plan for every trade).
Now, many of you reading this article are trading without a business plan.  That’s very unfortunate … for you!  If you don’t have a macro trade plan and you are trading then you are “out-of-sequence” in your trading process.  Your success as a trader depends on a number of items that include market knowledge, a set of rules, money management and risk management, and self-discipline to explicitly follow these trading necessities.  Your plan would include all of these elements and others to construct a vehicle that is designed for getting the results you want. Without a macro trading plan or business plan you lack the “big picture,” the overview map that holds the “how” you would proceed.  Furthermore, what are you telling yourself to justify not having a macro trade plan?  Here are some examples:
I have no idea how to write one,
I don’t consider it necessary,
It’s boring and time consuming,
Successful traders don’t have plans
I have a mental plan.
Of course, there are all types of excuses, but the bottom line is that they are excuses, and they are standing between you and setting yourself up for getting effective trading results.
Let’s take a look at some of the essentials that would go into your macro trade plan.
  1.  Create a cover sheet with the name of your business and this will establish the intention of treating your trading like the real business that it is.  Your cover sheet and name may seem inconsequential, but having an emotionally focused label is powerful.
  2. Establish your purpose for trading, the compelling reason why you want to trade.  You’ll want to tie this to the what-matters-most in your life in order to “harness” the passionate energy associated with it.  Things like family, friends, personal freedom, and those things you’re “hungry” for.  Answer the questions: I want to be a trader because…   My primary objective of being a trader is…   These objectives are important to me because…   I believe I can achieve my goals because…
  3. Identify your trading style in order to help you define your risk management strategy and the tools you’ll use to trade.   Answer these questions:  My trading style is…   I have chosen this style because…
  4. One of the toughest obstacles in trading is not the market, but rather the trader, him or herself.  A simple personality profile questionnaire will help you determine your strengths, weaknesses, how you handle losses and your expectations.  There are many resources available on the web to help you evaluate your personality.  Here is a link that can help:  http://www.outofservice.com/bigfive/   Then answer these questions:  My greatest strength is…  My greatest weakness is…  Potential problem areas are…
  5. Goals should be set to help you evaluate your progress, and give you a target for which to aim.  These goals should be both mechanical data (direct and indirect information related to the markets) and internal data (mental and emotional) goals.  An example of a mechanical data goal would be to beat the S&P 500 index in returns over a 12 month period.  An example of an internal data goal would be to read 1 book every 2 months to sharpen your trading knowledge.
  6. Identify the markets you want to trade; that is, those markets that your personality resonates with.  Also, determine the details of these markets for instance, Forex because you live on the West Coast and you’re a night owl and you particularly like the British Pound vs. the Japanese Yen pair.  Finish these sentences:  I will trade the following instruments…  I am trading these instruments because…  My trading times will be as follows…
  7. Make sure that your technology is up to date, free of bugs and with an IT (information technology) person on call in case your computer goes down.  Trading online demands a powerful and reliable system.  Ensure that you have one and that it is backed up.  Additionally, get a strong internet provider…cable preferably.  Going further you’ll want a trading platform that you trust both for data streams and for accurate fills.
  8. Effective routines lead to good habits.  Create a routine for the beginning, middle and end of your trading session; i.e., pre-market routines for both mechanical data (research, news, zones, time frames, indicators) and internal data (meditation, taking your emotional temperature, and lowering stress levels in order to be focused and ready for the trading trenches.)
  9. Gauging your risk is critically important at all times.  Categorize what you can control and determine how you will manage it.  For example, having limits on every trade you enter.  The prime directive is to protect your capital at all times.  Limits such as having a max number of shares/lots/contracts per trade; having a max loss per trade; and identifying a max loss per day are very important.  Complete these sentences:  I will gauge my risk on each trade by…  I will risk only _____ on any one trade…  My daily stop loss will be…  Once my stop is reached, I will…
  10. Have your protocols (strategies, procedures, setups and entry rules) spelled out.  Many strategies exist for trading, and every one does something different.  What will your approach be?  What tools will you use when you trade (mechanical/internal)?  Complete the following phrases:  My primary reason for entering into a trade will be…  My secondary reason for entering into a trade will be…  My ideal setup would be…
  11. Your review process is just as important as what you put into your macro trade plan.  Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly reviews would not be too much.  Remember it’s a living document meaning that it evolves as you do and you’ll want to have an intimate relationship with it.  It is your trusted vehicle for taking you and your A-Game to success.  Ask yourself these questions:
What securities are you trading more consistently?
What indicators work best for you?
Are you adhering to your stop loss plan?
Are you achieving your trading goals?
What times do you trade best?
What is your optimal share size?
Yes, planning is of paramount importance and if you put the time in to construct a good macro (business) trade plan you will have laid out your road map to getting the results that you want.  If you haven’t written your plan yet or if it is not a strong model, then stop trading and do it now.  Your success is too important to trade by default; i.e., just doing what you feel without a plan…you want to design your path and include everything that you’ll need for that journey.  Remember success is where preparation meets opportunity.
Happy Trading
Article by Dr.Woody Jhonson , Online Trading Academy


Thursday, 6 December 2012


Market updates for 07/12/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 
 
Today's trading session was a volatile one. At one point of time Nifty was down by 50 points but in the last 1 hour Nifty made a pull back and closed at 5930. Today's day high was 5942 which is very close to 5950.
 
Now Nifty will face resistance at Rs.5950 once it closes above this level next target will be at least 6000.
 

Infy

 
 
Infy is one of the companies which are badly beaten in past two trading sessions. It had made a breakout from resistance at Rs.2412 and reached a high of Rs.2470 which is near 200 DMA. Now it has again fallen into the earlier trading range. It has a support at Rs.2300 which can be the low risk buying zone.
 

Crude Oil

 
 
At this point of time (8.00 PM) crude is down by Rs.110. It has breached support at Rs.4770. As long as crude is below Rs.4770 we cannot expect uptrend and potential target is Rs.4600.
 

Nifty medium term trend

 
Trend  UP
Initiation Date 29-11-12
Initiated at  5825
High since change 5942
Reversal if closes below 5680
 
 
To follow on twitter click on : www.twitter.com/karthik4ta
 

Thought for the day

Darkness cannot drive out darkness , only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate , only love can do that.
 
 
 
 

Wednesday, 5 December 2012


Market updates for 06/12/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 
 
 
Nifty is gradually moving towards 5950. Today it made a intraday high of 5917 indicating strength. If Nifty reaches 5950 partial profit can be booked. Those who are holding long can place trailing stop loss below 5800. Over all trend remains up so don't dare to short.
 

SBI

 
 
 
SBI was selected for intraday trade. It has breached trend line and momentum indicators are looking bullish. SBI futures was bought at Rs.2255 and sold at Rs.2280 which earned a profit of Rs.3125.
 
We have open position in Rel Infra futures all other positions are squared off.
 
UPA has won FDI vote in Lok Sabha is a positive news for market. This rally 250 points in past 5 sessions is because of FDI policy. This news can support the continuation of up trend in market.Lets see!.
 
Whatever may be the advantages/disadvantages of FDI in retail. As a citizen of this country let us be Indian and buy Indian.
 

Nifty medium term trend

 
Trend  UP
Initiation Date 29-11-12
Initiated at  5825
High since change 5917
Reversal if closes below 5575
 
 

Thought for the day

 
What matters what anybody thinks ? It will be all the same a hundred years hence. 
 
 
 

Tuesday, 4 December 2012


Market updates for 05/12/2012

 

Rel Infra

 
 
Yesterday we have initiated long in Rel Infra at Rs.491. Today it has closed at Rs.501 and so we are in a profit of Rs.10 per share.
 
Rel Infra has multiple supports at Rs.452 and confirmation of uptrend was indicated at Rs.485 (spot) we are expecting further upside in this stock.
 

GOLD

 
We have initiated short in Gold Mini at Rs. 32010 before few days and cmp is Rs.31263. In the above chart you can see that gold has made double top formation. It it is in sharp down trend. It is likely to test the ascending trend line which is our target.
 

Nifty medium term trend

 
Trend  UP
Initiation Date 29-11-12
Initiated at  5825
High since change 5899
Reversal if closes below 5575
 

 

Thought for the day

 
Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual power . We have guided missiles but misguided men. - Martin LutherKing Jr.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Belief

If you must play, decide on three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time...Chinese Proverb

Never in the history of mankind has it been easier for people to tap into the financial markets. Millions of people visualize themselves sitting in their pajamas at home or on mobile devices as they  play or travel about--trading and earning a really good living. Trading goes on all over the world and people can buy and sell at almost any time of the day or night. What's not to like about this? How easy can this be?

Not easy at all. Simple, maybe--but not easy. Markets are open, complex adaptive systems that are always in motion. Other than the regulations set by the exchanges, there are very few rules. Trading is a game where we make our own rules and strive to take money from other people before they take our money. This is serious business, because it is our hard-earned money that we put at risk every time we enter a position. There is almost no way, short of very complex hedging strategies ( that often don't work) to put money into the markets without putting it into the realm of risk.

Why do so many traders fail? Why are so many called and so few chosen? There are several main reasons for this, but the fundamental one centers around belief systems. When you think about it, the market is pretty much a level playing field. Everyone has access to similar information, charting systems, and trading platforms. For a price, you can get just about anything you need in terms of trading. The two things you really need to be successful are not for sale: Your belief system and the belief system of others.

You are not really trading the markets. As Dr. Van Tharp often says-- and I agree completely-- you are trading your beliefs about the markets against the beliefs of everyone else who is trading. This is the area where the majority fails. They do not have a good understanding of their belief systems, yet struggle to put them into action to generate profits. You are what you believe, and if you don't know who you are or what you believe, the market is a very expensive place to find out. Why? Because you will act out your neurotic tendencies and insecurities to others in the markets who will exploit them. This happens every day on a very large scale--those who know themselves take money from those who do not know themselves.

Let's look at a price chart as one example of this. What is a price chart? It is emotions plotted on a grid. That's it. A price chart is the sum total of belief and emotion. Why do you execute on that chart? Because you believe something about it. The thousands of others who are executing on that chart are also trading their beliefs. In order to have a chart, it is necessary to have both buyers and sellers. In order for price movement to occur, there have to be both buyers and sellers. Someone is buying, and someone is selling to them. That means that these people are trading their beliefs in that moment. That also means that they have beliefs which are diametrically opposed. If it were not so, there would be no price movement and no chart.

How can we understand this even more clearly? A price print means different things to different people. Those who win have learned to focus on what the price means to others, rather than to themselves. Put another way, top traders are always looking to find out where the other person is going to execute. Where is the person who is already in the position going to get out of that position? What does that person think or believe about his position, and what is going to cause him to get out? Therefore, it is the beliefs of the other person that matter to you in terms of profit. When everyone who is going to get in is in, and everyone who is going to get out is out, there is no price movement. Movement occurs when the loser decides to get out, because the winner can wait. This is the edge that people have when they let profits run.

Put yourself in the position of the loser and try to fathom what that person believes about his or her position. See if you can do that over the coming week and see how it feels. Constantly question your own belief systems until you know why you are doing something. Always ask yourself, "What do I believe that is not true? What do others believe that is not true?" That is a good place to start.

No belief is neutral. Everyone has the power to dictate each decision you make. A decision is a conclusion based on everything that you believe...A Course In Miracles

Janice Dorn, M.D., Ph.D.