Market update for 21/06/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

                                                    (Click on the image to enlarge)

Another choppy trading session. Nifty is in the range between 5047 to 5143 from past 7 trading session. As expected Nifty has reached the upper part of the range . Now either it has to reach 5200 or it should come back to 5047.

In tomorrows trading session if Nifty sustains below 5090 then we can expect the levels of 5047 and if sustains above 5143 for more than a hour then the target will be 5200.

It Nifty breaks 5047 next target will be 5017-5000.

 

Chart of the day

 

Havells Ltd

Havells is in long term bullish phase. It is one of those few companies which haven't participated in the bearish phase of the market. In the previous trading session this company tested the trend line at Rs.530 and managed to bounce back.Today it has gained by 1.5% which confirms that Rs.530 is a strong support. Now Havells is expected to reach a target of Rs.560-570 and reversal will be closing below Rs.530.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Havells	Long	150	545	246.7	255
SBIN 2100 PE	Long	125	69	37.85	-3893
SBIN 2000 PE	Short	125	26	10.5	1937
Hero Motoco	Long	35	2050	2035	-525
Tata Mot	Long	100	245.5	245.95	45
Nifty 5100 PE	Long	50	45	44	-50

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Bata	100	810	822	1200
Tata Mot	330	242.5	246.5	1320
Hero Motoco	35	2050
Tata Mot	100	245.5
Infy fut	125	2472	2471	125
Infy 2500 CE	125	28	26	-250

 

Nifty Medium Term View

Trend	Up
Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
Reversal if closes above	4880

Thought for the day

"Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down."- Warren Buffett

 

Market Update for 20/06/2012

 

Nifty Hourly Chart

                                                     

Nifty has managed to bounce back from the intermediate support at 5047 and closed at 5103 up by 39 points. Now Nifty is expected to touch 5143 which is upper part of the range.  If Nifty sustains above 5143 then we can expect a target of 5200 and above. Market can remain choppy as RBI policy is behind us. The short term reversal of the trend can happen if Nifty sustains below 5047.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty is trading between 5050 to 5150 from few trading sessions. Whenever an Index or Stock trades in a range one day there will optimism in the market and next day pessimism. So traders should wait for breakout from the range before carrying the positions. The short term trend of Nifty will be up until it is above 5000.

Charts of the day

Infosys Ltd

Today short in Infy was recommended to traders. The reason behind this is Infy was in uptrend from 2351 levels and it made a high of 2543. In this rally it formed a ascending channel. The peaks of the channel are 2463 and 2543 and bottoms are at 2393, 2418, 2473. Now in hourly chart this channel is broken and Infy is expected to reach Rs.2445-2430 and below and reversal is above Rs. 2500.

Bank of Baroda

In today's session BoB is one of the losers in Banking sector. BoB is down by 1.2% and closed at Rs.669.60. In the above mentioned daily chart you can observe that it has closed right at the trend line. Its a make or break situation. MACD is showing a sell indication and there is every possibility that BoB can give a downside breakout. If it closes below Rs.669 for a day then the expected target is Rs.639 and reversal will be above Rs.Rs.674.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Havells	Long	150	545	539	-900
SBIN 2100 PE	Long	125	69	45.95	-2875
SBIN 2000 PE	Short	125	26	14.5	1437
Infy fut	Short	125	2472	2488	-2000
Infy 2500 CE	Long	125	28	34	750

Today's Trade 

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
SBIN 2100 PE	125	69
SBIN 2000 PE	125		26
Bank Nifty Fut	25	9600	9760	4000
Bank Nifty 9800 CE	25	90	156	-1650
Infy fut	125	2472
Infy 2500 CE	125	28

Nifty Medium Term View

Trend	Up
Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
Reversal if closes above	4880

Thought for the day

  "I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will." - Warren Buffett

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. what you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. when you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.
- Mark Douglas: ‘Trading in the Zone’

Market Update for 19/06/2012


Nifty Hourly Chart

                                                     (Click on the chart to enlarge)

Today's trading session was a disappointing one. Nifty made a gap up open but was unable to sustain at higher levels. Nifty fell sharply after RBI announced its policy to keep the rates unchanged disappointed the street. Interest rate sensitive sectors like Banks, Automobiles , Real Estate and others were hammered down. Nifty closed at 5064 down by 75 points.

In hourly chart Nifty has tested its previous bottom at 5047. Nifty can go down to 5017-5000 levels if it sustains below 5047. On the other hand if it sustains above 5090 we can expect the levels of 5145.

The short term view of the market will be positive until it is above 5000.

Nifty Daily Chart

In today's session Nifty has taken support at trend line at 5041. If Nifty closes below this level that would be first indication of weakness in the market. Further fall can be expected below 5000.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Havells	Long	150	545	534	-1650
Bank Nifty Fut	Short	25	9760	9715	1125
Bank Nifty 9800 CE	Long	25	156	131.9	-602

Today's Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Nifty 5200 CE	50	70	15	-2750
Nifty 5100 PE	50	74	105	1550
Bank Nifty Fut	25		9760
Bank Nifty 9800 CE	25		156

 

Nifty Medium Term View

Date	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
Reversal if closes above	4880

 

Thought for the day

A man may beat a stock or a group at a certain time, but no man living can beat the stock market! - Jesse Livermore

Market Update for 18/06/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

                                                      (Click on the chart to enlarge)

Nifty has formed a bullish pattern by achieving higher top and higher bottom. 5048, 5017 are the important support and 5146 is the important resistance. The earlier resistance was at 5124 which was breached in the previous trading session.

On Monday we can expect a gap up or gap down opening as the election result of the Greece will be announced and another important event is RBI policy. So market is expected to be highly volatile. So traders should be cautious in deciding the trades.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty has breached the decending trend line and it has once again closed above 200 DMA.Even though Nifty was down on Thursday's trading session the closing was above trend line. So the prevailing uptrend was not disturbed.

MACD is still indicatind uptrend and RSI is at the levles of around 66. So there is some more upside left in the market. Nifty is trading above important moving averages like 20,50 and 200 DMAs. It is also likely to test 100 DMA at 5200. The reversal of Nifty can happen if it closes below 5000.

Nifty Weekly Chart

In weekly chart Nifty has crossed 32.8% retracement level . It has also closed above decending trend line which was drawn by joining 5627-5341. Next target is 5192 and 5295. Aroung 5200 levels short term traders can exit part of the long positions and further profit booking can be done at 5295 i.e 61.8% which is the golden ratio.

Chart of the day

Infosys Ltd

Infy was hammered down after the poor Q4 results. Infy was trading in a narrow range which is between 2523-2290. This process is called base building. From past 4 trading sessions this stock is moving continuously and in the last trading session it has tested the upper pasr of the range. The gap which was formed 2733-2520 can be filled if Infy closes above 2525. So wait for the breakout and buy if Infy closes above Rs.2525 and stoploss will be closing below Rs.2500.Expected target Rs.2560-2600 and above.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
Havells Ltd	Long	150	545	542	-450
Nifty 5200 CE	Long	50	70	67	-150
Nifty 5100 PE	Long	50	74	80	300

Todays Trade

Scrip	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Bank Nifty Fut	25	9960	9830	-3250
Bank Nifty 9900 CE	25	230	275	1125

Nifty Medium Term View

Nifty Medium Term Trend	Up
Date of Initiation	12/06/2012
Initiated at	5116
Reversal if closes above	4880

<><><><>

<><><><>

This view is based on higher time frame and different parameters. Traders should not get confused  with other updates. Thought for the day “We are what our thoughts have made us; so take care about what you think. Words are secondary. Thoughts live; they travel far.” - Swami Vivekananda