Market updates for 21/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

On Thhursday's trading session Nifty lost moderate 45 points and closed at 5554.As long as the trend line support is not breached we can expect bounce back. The range of the Nifty will be 5530-5630. Since today is the last trading session weekly close below 5630 indicates that this level is acting as strong intermediary resistance.

 

Nifty Medium term trend 

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5648
Reversal if closes below	5320

 

 

Open Positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
DLF Fut	Long	231.8	231	-0.8
DLF 230 PE	Long	6.7	6.5	-0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market updates for 20/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

Nifty has started to consolidate at 5600 level. Unless it closes above 5630 we cannot expect continuation of uptrend. The extension of the peaks 5348-5450 is at  5520 which is the support region.5630 could be te peak of this rally and we may notice a dip towards 5520-30. So broader range of the market will be 5630-5520. Wait for either side breakout on closing basis.

 

Chart of the day

 

Hero Mot

 

 

 

 

Before few trading sessions buy on Hero Mot fut was recommended. The rationale behind this decision is the trend line breakout. Entry an exit price were 1825 and 1870 respectively.

 

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5586
Reversal if closes below	5320

 

Positions squared off

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Infy Fut	2597	2566	-31

 

 

Intraday Trades

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Idfc Fut	149	151	2

 

Thought for the day

 

If Jesus , Moses , Buddha  and Mohammed were to bump into each ther along the road and go have a cup of tea or whatever , I think we all know they would treat one another far different and far better than a lot of their followers would - Brian  Mclaren

 

 

 

Market update for 18/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

 

Nifty has continued uptrend by closing above 5600.Now it may start consolidating in a range as it has rallied more than 150 points in a very short time of two trading sessions. Since RSI is overbought region we may also see a short term dip. But as long as Nifty is above 5530 bulls will dominate.

 

Chart of the day

 

Tata Motors

 

 

 

Today we have booked profit in Tata Mot at Rs.280 as it has filled the gaps between Rs.259-275 and 277-286. RSI is overbought we will use the dip to re enter.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5652
Reversal if closes below	5320

 

The medium term trend of Nifty is up since 7/08/2012. The hardcore followers of news and so called global cues should remember that most of us (including me) don't know how to analyse news.But the problem is we think that we know when the reality is we don't know. So it is better stick to a time tested , proven mathematical tools to decide entry and exit point.

 

 Is it 100% perfect?

 

It is repeatedly taught to us from school days that anything less than 90% is equal to failure. But a trader require 1:1 risk reward ratio , 60% accuracy, belief in the system even when it is not giving profit (because it is just a small phase) to earn a fortune in market. The average life span of an impatient trader is 6 months!!.

 

Open Positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Infy Fut	Short	2566	2567	-1

 

 

Positions squared off

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Tata Motors	257	280	23
Hero Motoco Fut	1825	1870	45
Hero Motoco 1800 PE	22	10	-12

 

 

Today's Trade

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
LIC Hsg Fut	261.4	264.6	3.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market updates for 16/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

Nifty has breached the resistance at 5450 and closed at 5570 up by 134 points. In the above chart you can see that at 5600 there are multiple peaks which is the next resistance.  Most of the traders might have missed the rally but we will get another opportunity to take long if Nifty closes above 5630 which is the previous peak.

Nifty weekly charts

 

Trend Line Breakout

 

 

 

Fibonacci Levels

 

 

 

Nifty has breached the trend line resistance in weekly chart which is a bullish sign. If we draw Fibonacci retracement from 5636 to 4770 in weekly chart we can observe that Nifty has closed above 5451 which is 78.6% retracment. Next target is  5636 which completes 100% retracement. Once Nifty closes above 5636 it can reach 5830 which is 123.6% and then 5960 which is 138.2%.

 

Traders should  remember that  these levels will not be reached in a day or two. It may take months as we cannot expect  Nifty to rally 100 points everyday .It will create many more peaks and valleys before reaching high and this trend will fail if Nifty closes below the trend line support at 5435.

 

Chart of the day

 

Tata Motors

 

 

 

Buy on Tata Motors was initiated at Rs.257 when it breached the resistance at Rs.250. On Friday we have booked partial profit at Rs.269 . Continuation of the rally is expected. 

 

 

Nifty medium term trend 

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5586
Reversal if closes below	5320

 

 

Open positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Tata Motors	Long	257	263	6
Hero Motoco	Long	1825	1844	19
Hero Motoco 1800 PE	Long	22	17.3	-4.7

 

Positions squared off

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
V guard	410	396	-14
Tata Mot	257	269	12

 

 

Intraday Trades

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
Axis Bank Fut	993	1007	14

 

Thought for the day

 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them - Albert Einstein

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market updates for 14/09/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 

 

 

In today's trading session Nifty has closed at 5435 marginally above the trend line.Today's candle stick formation is called 'doji' which denotes indecision about the trend. Next hurdle for Nifty is at 5448 which is previous peak as well as 78.6% retracement. A close above this level will take Nifty to 5500-5600 levels. . Suppose Nifty doesn't break 5450 in coming trading sessions then it can test 5350. So the range of the Nifty is 5350-5450.

 

Last time when Nifty was in down trend it took support at 5220 and now this trend line support has shifted to 5280 which is the strongest support region for Nifty.

 

Nifty weekly chart

 

 

 

On weekly chart even though  Nifty reached a high of 5448 it was unable to close above 5400. So tomorrow's closing is of at most importance. If Nifty doesn't close above 5400 then we can expect a short term dip in coming days.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 

Trend	UP
Initiation Date	07/08/2012
Initiated at	5336
High since change	5448
Reversal if closes below	5180

 

 

Open positions

 

Scrip	Type	Price	CMP	P/L
Tata Motors	Long	257	259.5	2.50
V guard	Long	410	393.50	-16.50

 

 

Today's Trades

 

Scrip	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
SBI Fut	1873	1891	18
Ranbaxy Fut	553	554	-1

 

 

Thought for the day

Familiarity with danger makes a brave man braver but less daring.