Tuesday, 11 December 2012

 

Market updates for 12/12/2012

 

Tata Motors

 

 
Tata Motors is facing resistance around Rs.285. Wait for breakout above Rs.285 for continuation of up trend. It has trend line support around Rs.266 which can act as low risk entry level.
 

Bharti Airtel

 
 
Bharti Airtel had breached trend line resistance and reached a high of Rs.340. But now it has closed below the trend line support and oscilators like MACD and RSI are indicating sell. We have initiated short in Bharti at Rs.319 today it has closed at Rs.316 further fall is expected.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 
Trend  UP
Initiation Date 29-11-12
Initiated at  5825
High since change 5950
Reversal if closes below 5680
 

Thought for the day

 
He alone is entitled to be called a man who possess a thoughtful nature and feel for others in the same way as he does for his own self , does not fear unjust , however powerful , but fears the truly virtuous , however weak. - Dayananda Saraswati 
 
 
 

Monday, 10 December 2012


Market updates for 11/12/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 
 
Nifty is consolidating in a narrow range. We cannot expect continuation of uptrend unless it breaks 5950 on closing basis. RSI is in extreme over bought position. However the disadvantage of RSI is that it can remain over bought for longer than expected time in a perfect trending market.
 
Wait for break out.
 

Chart of the day

 

TCS

 
 
TCS has breached 200 DMA as well as support at Rs.1260. It is forming lower high lower low which is a bearish formation. Further downfall is expected.

 

Nifty medium term trend

 
Trend  UP
Initiation Date 29-11-12
Initiated at  5825
High since change 5950
Reversal if closes below 5680
 
 

Thought for the day

 
India of the ages  is not dead nor she has spoken her last creative word : she lives and has still something to do for herself and to the human beings - Maharshi Aurobindo.
 
 
 
 
 

Sunday, 9 December 2012

 

Market updates for 10/12/2012

 

Nifty weekly chart

 


In the previous posts it was mentioned that Nifty is likely to reach 5950 . Now it has completed 78.6% retracement. Earlier Nifty has made a peak at 5950 in April 2011 which can act as intermediary resistance. RSI is in over bought position and there could be possibility of a short term correction. If market corrects, then in worst case scenario, it may come down to 5700 which is trend line support. If Nifty sustains above 5940 then it will move towards 6000-6300.
 
Overall direction of Nifty from short term and medium term perspective remains bullish. Short term reversal is below 5780 and medium term reversal is below 5685.

Chart of the day

 

BHEL

 
 
 
BHEL has made multiple peaks at 240 and it has breached this level and sustained for 2 trading sessions. Also it is trading above 50 MA and momentum indicator is showing uptrend. We have initiated bullish strategy at Rs.241.

 

Lead

 
 
 
Lead faced resistance at Rs.123.2 and started falling. It has closed below Rs.121 which is 20 DMA and MACD is indicating sell. Based on above observation we have created short position at Rs.120. The reversal of the trend will be closing above Rs.123.20.
 

Nifty medium term trend

 
Trend  UP
Initiation Date 29-11-12
Initiated at  5825
High since change 5950
Reversal if closes below 5680
 

 

Thought for the day

 
Men occasionally stumble over the truth , but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened.
 
 

Friday, 7 December 2012



Have a business plan
What is the first thing that you do when you want something with an intense desire? When you want it so bad you can taste it? When you can feel the desire in your bones? When you’re driven by a desire that leaves you hungry for it? With this kind of emotionally passionate focus, you automatically begin to think about “how” you can get it. In other words you begin to plan. The “how” or “plan” charts the way to achieving the desired item…no matter what it is and no matter how small or large. Planning is essential to the process of achievement and without it you would come as close to accomplishing the goal as you would if you were to be blindfolded and spun around and given a bow and arrow to hit a bulls eye 100 yards away. Trading requires planning at both the macro level (the big picture or business plan) and the micro level (the small picture or plan for every trade).
Now, many of you reading this article are trading without a business plan.  That’s very unfortunate … for you!  If you don’t have a macro trade plan and you are trading then you are “out-of-sequence” in your trading process.  Your success as a trader depends on a number of items that include market knowledge, a set of rules, money management and risk management, and self-discipline to explicitly follow these trading necessities.  Your plan would include all of these elements and others to construct a vehicle that is designed for getting the results you want. Without a macro trading plan or business plan you lack the “big picture,” the overview map that holds the “how” you would proceed.  Furthermore, what are you telling yourself to justify not having a macro trade plan?  Here are some examples:
I have no idea how to write one,
I don’t consider it necessary,
It’s boring and time consuming,
Successful traders don’t have plans
I have a mental plan.
Of course, there are all types of excuses, but the bottom line is that they are excuses, and they are standing between you and setting yourself up for getting effective trading results.
Let’s take a look at some of the essentials that would go into your macro trade plan.
  1.  Create a cover sheet with the name of your business and this will establish the intention of treating your trading like the real business that it is.  Your cover sheet and name may seem inconsequential, but having an emotionally focused label is powerful.
  2. Establish your purpose for trading, the compelling reason why you want to trade.  You’ll want to tie this to the what-matters-most in your life in order to “harness” the passionate energy associated with it.  Things like family, friends, personal freedom, and those things you’re “hungry” for.  Answer the questions: I want to be a trader because…   My primary objective of being a trader is…   These objectives are important to me because…   I believe I can achieve my goals because…
  3. Identify your trading style in order to help you define your risk management strategy and the tools you’ll use to trade.   Answer these questions:  My trading style is…   I have chosen this style because…
  4. One of the toughest obstacles in trading is not the market, but rather the trader, him or herself.  A simple personality profile questionnaire will help you determine your strengths, weaknesses, how you handle losses and your expectations.  There are many resources available on the web to help you evaluate your personality.  Here is a link that can help:  http://www.outofservice.com/bigfive/   Then answer these questions:  My greatest strength is…  My greatest weakness is…  Potential problem areas are…
  5. Goals should be set to help you evaluate your progress, and give you a target for which to aim.  These goals should be both mechanical data (direct and indirect information related to the markets) and internal data (mental and emotional) goals.  An example of a mechanical data goal would be to beat the S&P 500 index in returns over a 12 month period.  An example of an internal data goal would be to read 1 book every 2 months to sharpen your trading knowledge.
  6. Identify the markets you want to trade; that is, those markets that your personality resonates with.  Also, determine the details of these markets for instance, Forex because you live on the West Coast and you’re a night owl and you particularly like the British Pound vs. the Japanese Yen pair.  Finish these sentences:  I will trade the following instruments…  I am trading these instruments because…  My trading times will be as follows…
  7. Make sure that your technology is up to date, free of bugs and with an IT (information technology) person on call in case your computer goes down.  Trading online demands a powerful and reliable system.  Ensure that you have one and that it is backed up.  Additionally, get a strong internet provider…cable preferably.  Going further you’ll want a trading platform that you trust both for data streams and for accurate fills.
  8. Effective routines lead to good habits.  Create a routine for the beginning, middle and end of your trading session; i.e., pre-market routines for both mechanical data (research, news, zones, time frames, indicators) and internal data (meditation, taking your emotional temperature, and lowering stress levels in order to be focused and ready for the trading trenches.)
  9. Gauging your risk is critically important at all times.  Categorize what you can control and determine how you will manage it.  For example, having limits on every trade you enter.  The prime directive is to protect your capital at all times.  Limits such as having a max number of shares/lots/contracts per trade; having a max loss per trade; and identifying a max loss per day are very important.  Complete these sentences:  I will gauge my risk on each trade by…  I will risk only _____ on any one trade…  My daily stop loss will be…  Once my stop is reached, I will…
  10. Have your protocols (strategies, procedures, setups and entry rules) spelled out.  Many strategies exist for trading, and every one does something different.  What will your approach be?  What tools will you use when you trade (mechanical/internal)?  Complete the following phrases:  My primary reason for entering into a trade will be…  My secondary reason for entering into a trade will be…  My ideal setup would be…
  11. Your review process is just as important as what you put into your macro trade plan.  Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly reviews would not be too much.  Remember it’s a living document meaning that it evolves as you do and you’ll want to have an intimate relationship with it.  It is your trusted vehicle for taking you and your A-Game to success.  Ask yourself these questions:
What securities are you trading more consistently?
What indicators work best for you?
Are you adhering to your stop loss plan?
Are you achieving your trading goals?
What times do you trade best?
What is your optimal share size?
Yes, planning is of paramount importance and if you put the time in to construct a good macro (business) trade plan you will have laid out your road map to getting the results that you want.  If you haven’t written your plan yet or if it is not a strong model, then stop trading and do it now.  Your success is too important to trade by default; i.e., just doing what you feel without a plan…you want to design your path and include everything that you’ll need for that journey.  Remember success is where preparation meets opportunity.
Happy Trading
Article by Dr.Woody Jhonson , Online Trading Academy


Thursday, 6 December 2012


Market updates for 07/12/2012

 

Nifty daily chart

 
 
Today's trading session was a volatile one. At one point of time Nifty was down by 50 points but in the last 1 hour Nifty made a pull back and closed at 5930. Today's day high was 5942 which is very close to 5950.
 
Now Nifty will face resistance at Rs.5950 once it closes above this level next target will be at least 6000.
 

Infy

 
 
Infy is one of the companies which are badly beaten in past two trading sessions. It had made a breakout from resistance at Rs.2412 and reached a high of Rs.2470 which is near 200 DMA. Now it has again fallen into the earlier trading range. It has a support at Rs.2300 which can be the low risk buying zone.
 

Crude Oil

 
 
At this point of time (8.00 PM) crude is down by Rs.110. It has breached support at Rs.4770. As long as crude is below Rs.4770 we cannot expect uptrend and potential target is Rs.4600.
 

Nifty medium term trend

 
Trend  UP
Initiation Date 29-11-12
Initiated at  5825
High since change 5942
Reversal if closes below 5680
 
 
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Thought for the day

Darkness cannot drive out darkness , only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate , only love can do that.