Exit Nifty 5000 Call @ CMP Rs. 70.85 . Exit 4900 put at cmp Rs. 132. No open positions in Nifty.

Market Update for 31/05/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

In yesterdays trading session Nifty has given up the gains which happened after the breakout at 4955.

5000 is an important psychological level and Nifty is unable to close above that. In yesterday's trading session Nifty closed at 4950 , below the previous resistance. This is a sign of weakness. Today if Nifty closes below 4955 again then we will again notice a range bound market.Our earlier targets 5035-5075 will be achieved if Nifty closes above 5000.

Trader's should observe that in a range bound market one day there will be pessimism and another day optimism. To avoid such situations we are giving recommendations only after breakout. But unfortunately breakouts are not sustaining for longer period of time.

Since today is expiry trader should be cautious as the market is expected to be highly volatile.

 

BPCL Daily Chart

The trend of BPCL has turned down. Indicators like RSI and MACD has given a sell indication and the stock is trading below 20 DMA. 50 DMA at Rs.688 can act as intermediary support. Below Rs.688 we are expecting a target up to Rs.645 and stop loss above Rs.725.

Open Position

Scrip	Type	Qty	Price	CMP	P/L
BPCL June fut	Short	500	695.5	696.3	-400
BPCL June 700 CE	Long	500	21.5	20	-750
Nifty 5000 June CE	Long	100	102.65	87	-1565
Nifty 4900 June PE	Long	50	98.5	114.8	815

Intraday Trades

Scrip	Type	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
JSW Steel	Sell	80	610	618	640
Axis Bank	Sell	45	988	999	405
SBI	Sell	10	1907	2096	1890

Result :

 BEML

Thought for the day :

When I am long of stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish. But you find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks - Jesse Livermore

 

New Call for HNI Traders. Short BPCL June Futures @ CMP 695.50 and at the same time buy 700 june call option @ 21.50.

Exit JSW Steel at CMP Rs.618. Exit SBI at Rs.2096.

If you have taken short position below 4955 keep a stoploss of 30 points and don't carry the position.

Axis Bank Trailing stoploss  at Rs. 999 is triggered. Exit

Market Update for 30/05/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

Today's trading session was quite and choppy trading session. There was some stock specific movements. SBI and JSW Steel were one of the top gainers. I  am glad that it was recommended at lower level. We are still holding it as more upside can be expected.

Coming back to Nifty hourly chart, the trend of Nifty is still up and 5037 should be achieved easily. Next target will be 5075 which is 200 DMA. If Nifty takes a dip because of profit booking or any other reason we may see the level of 4955 which was previous resistance. So short position can be considered only below 4955 or if someone wants to take a low risk entry short can be considered at 5075. Closing above 200 DMA that is 5075 should be the stop loss for short.

Nifty is overbought in hourly chart, however it can be in  overbought region some more time in a trending market.

Tata Motors Result Highlights

* Net profit for the quarter is Rs.6250 crores vs Rs. 2620 crores.

*Consolidated revenue increased to Rs.50,900 vs Rs.35300 crores up by 44%.

*200% dividend which is Rs.4 was declared.

*Operating profit margin is 14.60% vs 9.60%

*For the entire 2011-12 financial year, Tata Motors consolidated net profit went up by 45.75    percent to Rs 13,516.50 crore from Rs 9,273.62 crore in the previous fiscal.

*The consolidated net income in FY'12 stood at Rs 1,65,654.49 crore compared to Rs 1,22,127.92 crore in FY'11, up 35.64 percent.

*Tata Motors had sold a total of 9,26,353 units of passenger and commercial vehicles during 2011-12, registering a rise of 10.7 percent over the previous fiscal

*Tata Sons Deputy Chairman Cyrus P Mistry was inducted to the Tata Motors board as a Director.

Technically Tata motors had breached the descending trend line and made a high of Rs.283.10. But the breakout in hourly chart was not sustained for long and the stock price closed below the trend line at Rs. 275.75.

The results of Tata Motors is above estimates but we need to see how the market reacts. Tomorrow if it opens above Rs.285 then we can notice major upside rally in the stock price. Closing above Rs.277.50 will indicate a major reversal in the trend. Trailing stop loss will be updated periodically.

At the same time if it opens below Rs.267 then that will be the indication of downtrend. Wait for 10-15 mins after opening  before taking any decision.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Buy Price	CMP	P/L
SBI	Long	10	1907	2120	2130
Axis Bank	Long	46	988	1024	1656
JSW Steel	Long	80	610	621.75	940
Nifty 5000 June CE	Long	100	102.65	110	800
Nifty 4900 June PE	Long	50	98.5	93	-250

* Trailing Stop loss for SBI 2040, Axis Bank Rs.999, JSW Steel Rs.597.00. Expected short term target for Nifty 5075.

 Results

Colgate, DLF,GAIL,Financial Tech,HDIL,Havells, JP Associates, Tata chem, Godrej Ind, RCF and others.

Thought for the day

How to become a successful trader ?

Know more than others but expect less than others. 

Market Update for 29/05/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty was trading in a range of 4955-4800 from many trading sessions. In the last trading session Nifty has breached the resistance at 4955 and closed at 4985. The importance of this breakout is high and we can expect more momentum in the market. Now Nifty is expected to reach the levels of 5030-5100 in few trading sessions.

 

Nifty Daily Chart

There are multiple buy signals in daily chart of nifty.

MACD has given a buy signal.

RSI is above 30 and increasing

Parabolic SAR has given buy indication and SL is 4800.

Nifty has come out of the trading range 4800-4950.

Nifty has closed above 20DMA which is at 4882.

So the general trend of the market is up and as long as 4800 holds this correction from 5600 can be considered as a correction in bull market. So do not short Index or individual stocks. As per fibonacci retracement next levels to watch will be 5108,5207. We also need to consider 200 DMA which is at 5075. 

Banks have been an out performer from few years and they will continue to outperform. So keep an eye on SBI,ICICI Bank, AXIS Bank and YES Bank in Banking space. Traders can also consider BHEL, LT and TATA MOTORS. Cairn and Bombay Dyeing also has potential to move up further.

Please trade with stop loss.

Results

HPCL,ABG Shipyard, LITL,Aurobindo Pharma, Sun Pharma, SAIL and others

Open Position

Scrip	Type	Qty	Buy Price	CMP	P/L
SBI	Long	10	1907	2101	1940
Axis Bank	Long	46	988	1029	1640
JSW Steel	Long	80	610	608.5	-120
Nifty 5000 June CE	Long	100	102.65	116.6	1395
Nifty 4900 June PE	Long	50	98.5	89.3	-460

 

Intraday Trades

Scrip	Type	Qty	Buy Price	Sell Price	P/L
JSW Steel	Buy	80	610
Axis Bank	Sell	40		1019	1240
Nifty 5000 PE	Buy	100	83	65	-1800
Nifty 5000 June CE	Buy	100	102.65
Nifty 4900 June PE	Buy	50	98.5

 Thought for the day

Traders who fail to set a goal may live for the thrill associated with wining big but will likely to experience the pain of defeat more often.

Positional Call : Buy Nifty June month 5000 CE 2 lots at Rs.102.65. Buy 1 lot 4900 PE ar Rs.98.50.

At Rs.1019 book partial profit in Axis bank initiated at Rs.988

Market Update for 28/05/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

Friday's trading session was a flat session with no major movement. The expected target 4955 looks achievable. The reversal of the trend will be below 4850.

This is a consolidation phase which is happening from 11th may and many of us are blaming the market. We can't expect the market to rally everyday and also we cannot dictate our terms and conditions. All we need to do is to wait for the opportunity to appear and then grab it. The golden rule should be ' no indication - no trade'. Let us not trade because it is difficult to sit in front of terminal without doing anything.

Nifty Daily Chart

In both hourly chart and daily chart it is visible that the rate at  which market was falling is stopped and we are in a phase of consolidation.  Moving Average Convergence Divergence has given a buy indication in last trading session . Nifty can face a hurdle at 4955-60 levels. Once this resistance is breached we can expect a upside rally and targets will be 4984-5108-5207-5307 and reversal is below 4780.

We may not see any major movement in May series and Nifty is expected to close in the range of 4800-5000.

 

Nifty Weekly Chart

From past two weeks Nifty is unable to break the descending trend line.This may not happen in the short term unless a major bad news enters the market. Unless we see a weekly close below 4800 we cannot expect further fall in the market.

Hindalco Hourly Chart

The trend of Hindalco was down and Hindalco trading between two parallel lines. During last trading session the price has marginally closed above the line. We had recommended buying 110 call option at Rs.3 and profit booked at Rs.3.90.

On Monday observe Hindalco for half an hour and if stock price is above the trend line buy 500 shares for short term keeping a stop loss below Rs.108. If it trades below the trend line then we can expect a reversal. In such situation traders can short keeping a stop loss above Rs.113.

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Buy Price	CMP	P/L
SBI	Long	10	1907	2008	1010
Axis Bank	Long	86	988	1003	1290

LIGHTER MOMENTS

 

Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs.10.

The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them. The man bought  thousands at Rs.10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would buy for Rs.30. Villagers were happy and they started catching more monkeys. The supply started reducing and villagers went back to their farms to work.

One fine day the man announced that he will buy monkeys for Rs.50. But he has to go to the town for  some work . So he asked the villagers to hand over the monkeys to his assistant and he will pay the money once he return. After catching monkeys villagers went to assistant but assistant took them to the cage where thousands of monkeys were kept and told them that you buy them for Rs.30 from me  when the man returns you sell all of them for Rs.50. Villagers agreed  and bought all monkeys by making use of all their savings. But they never saw the man nor assistance only monkeys everywhere.

!!Welcome to stock market !!

1st tgt for Hindalco achieved. If you are still holding place SL at Rs.2.75

Target for Hindalco 110 CE Rs.3.90-4.50

Hold Axis Bank by keeping SL at Rs.980. Next target is Rs.1026

Market Estimates for 25/05/2012

Nifty Hourly Chart

In yesterday's trading session (23.05.2012) , even though 4830 was breached , Nifty closed at 4835 and the support was defended. Today, in spite of various bad news related to petrol hike and rupee depreciation, Nifty has managed to give a bounce of 90+ points and closed at 4921. Now Nifty is expected  to move towards 4950 and tomorrow if Nifty trades above 4950 for an hour then  only we can expect the levels of 5030-5100.

Suppose Nifty is unable to cross 4955-60 levels trades can short nifty by keeping a stop loss of 30 points.

Nifty Daily Chart

In daily chart you can observe that Nifty is trading in a narrow range of 172 points from past 10 trading sessions. Now the trading range is between 4960 and 4788.

Some of the important observations to be made in daily chart are RSI is above 30 after 12 trading sessions and showing signs of recovery and  MACD is expected to give buy indication in one or two trading sessions provided the uptrend continues . So there is a possibility that Nifty will give a break out on the upside in next 2-3 trading sessions. But to be on the safer side wait for the breakout to happen. Long position in Nifty can be taken if it closes above 4960.

Nifty Weekly Chart

In spite of various bad news about world as well as domestic economy Nifty has managed to hold 4800 levels.

The descending trend line is not broken and RSI is oversold. In this scenario investors with at least 6 months to 1 year time frame can start buying blue chip/index stocks / Nifty Bees. It is not advisable to invest all the money but investors can start buying partially.

 

Axis Bank

In hourly chart of Axis Bank you can observe that the stock price has breached the previous peak Rs.981.6 . This breakout has occurred after consolidating between the range Rs.953-981 and so the importance of this breakout is high. You might have also observed that Axis bank made a high of Rs.998 with in a short period of time.

So hold Axis bank for a target of Rs.1012-1018-1035 and stop loss is below Rs.1165. 

 

Open Positions

Scrip	Type	Qty	Buy Price	CMP	P/L
SBI	Long	10	1907	1966	50
Axis Bank	Long	86	988	998	860
Hindalco 110 CE*	Long	2000	3	3.1	200
* Hindalco was given traders with higher risk appetite. Intraday Trades Scrip Type Qty Buy Price Sell Price P/L Bank Nifty Long 25 9307 9127 -4500          Position Sq off Nifty 4800 PE Long 100 61 54 -700          Intraday Hindalco  Long 500 108.1 110.9 1400          Intraday Bank Nifty 9200 CE Long  25 128 220 2300          Position Sq off Bank Nifty 9200 CE Long 50 177 230 2650          Intraday Total 1150  Thought for the day "Most men make money in their own business  and lose it in some other fellow's."